One setup, many possible paths
Each line tracks a sequence of closed trades. Your win rate sets the chance of a win; the reward-to-risk ratio sets its size relative to a loss. Outcomes are independent and the inputs stay constant throughout the run.
Equity Curve Simulator
See how the same strategy can produce different equity curves and drawdowns.
MedianStarting capitalUSD · 100 trades · 60 paths
Full simulation statistics
Results across all paths
- Mean final equity
- US$14,009.26
- Median final equity
- US$13,613.77
- Final equity · 10th percentile
- US$11,381.21
- Final equity · 90th percentile
- US$16,777.73
- Lowest final equity
- US$9,514.78
- Highest final equity
- US$21,303.61
- Maximum drawdown · median
- 7.74%
- Maximum drawdown · mean
- 8.1%
- Worst drawdown
- 24.55%
- Paths with drawdown ≥ 20%
- 0.2%
- Losing paths
- 0.6%
- Paths reaching zero
- 0%
- Longest losing streak
- 24 trades
- Gross expectancy
- 0.35 R
500 paths × 100 trades · Win rate 45% · 2 R · Risk 1% of current balance · Cost US$0.00/trade · Seed 42
The model generates independent wins and losses using constant inputs. These statistics describe hypothetical paths, not future strategy performance.
What the simulation shows
Explore 60 individual paths
The Paths view draws 60 sequences from the simulation. Hover or tap to read a balance. The purple line is the median across every simulated path at each trade, so it is a summary rather than a single tradable sequence.
Read the band correctly
Distribution shows the 10th to 90th percentiles, covering the middle 80% of balances at each trade. It does not mean that 80% of paths stay inside the band for their whole length. Every simulated path contributes to the calculation.
Choose fixed or compounding risk
Risk based on starting capital stays fixed in cash terms. Risk based on the current balance changes after each trade. A path stops trading at zero. The model does not simulate negative balances, margin requirements or movements within an open trade.
Allow for trading costs
Enter the total opening and closing cost per trade, including spread and slippage. The same cash amount is deducted each time, even with compounding risk. Leave it at zero if your starting figures already include those costs.
Compare returns with drawdown
A positive expectancy can still come with long losing streaks. Drawdown measures the fall from each path's previous peak. Expand the statistics to review the full sample, or export the CSV for the results and inputs behind each path.