Equity Curve Simulator
Enter win rate, risk-reward and risk per trade: see hundreds of possible paths for your capital and the drawdown you should expect.
Full simulation statistics
Results across all paths
- Mean final equity
- US$14,009.26
- Median final equity
- US$13,613.77
- Final equity · 10th percentile
- US$11,381.21
- Final equity · 90th percentile
- US$16,777.73
- Lowest final equity
- US$9,514.78
- Highest final equity
- US$21,303.61
- Maximum drawdown · median
- 7.74%
- Maximum drawdown · mean
- 8.1%
- Worst drawdown
- 24.55%
- Paths with drawdown ≥ 20%
- 0.2%
- Losing paths
- 0.6%
- Paths reaching zero
- 0%
- Longest losing streak
- 24 trades
- Gross expectancy
- 0.35 R
500 paths × 100 trades · Win rate 45% · 2 R · Risk 1% of current balance · Cost US$0.00/trade · Seed 42
The model generates independent wins and losses using constant inputs. These statistics describe hypothetical paths, not future strategy performance.
How it works
- Step 1
Enter your strategy
Win rate, average win to average loss, risk per trade and number of trades. If you know them, add your average costs per trade too.
- Step 2
Explore the scenarios
The simulator generates up to 1,000 random sequences with the same rules. The purple line is the median: half the scenarios end above it, half below.
- Step 3
Read the risk, not just the return
Check drawdown, losing streaks and the chance of ending at a loss. Even a winning strategy can go through long, difficult stretches.
Frequently asked questions
No. It shows what can happen if win rate and risk-reward stay as entered. If the market or your execution changes, so do the results.
Can’t find your answer? Write to the team
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