Start without knowing your win rate
Count the winning and losing trades in one period, then add their profits and losses separately. The calculator works out win rate and averages for you. Include early exits as well as targets and stops.
Trading Expectancy Calculator
Use your trade results to see the average outcome and what drives it.
Your strategy data
Use winning and losing trades from the same period, with amounts after costs.
USD
USD
Trades closed at zero · optional
Only include results of exactly zero after costs. An exit at entry with fees is a losing trade.
100 trades in the sample
Average result per trade
+US$35.00Positive average
100 trades · Net result US$3,500.00
Describes your sample. It is not a forecast.
How wins and losses shape expectancy
Each outcome's contribution to the average trade.
Wins +US$90.0045% wins · Average win US$200.00
Losses −US$55.0055% losses · Average loss US$100.00
Win rate and break-even
Average wins, average losses and the flat-trade share stay fixed in this comparison.
- Your win rate
- 45%
- Break-even win rate
- 33.33%
11.67 percentage points above the break-even threshold.
What your trade history tells you
Make the average tangible
Suppose 45 winners earned USD 9,000 and 55 losers lost USD 5,500. The net result is USD 3,500 across 100 trades, or USD 35 per trade. Win rate is 45%, and the average win is twice the average loss.
Use results after costs
Use results that already include commissions and other trading costs. Enter losses as a positive total. Trades finishing at exactly zero after costs belong in the optional flat-trade field: they increase the sample count without adding profit or loss.
Already have your statistics?
Switch to From statistics and enter win rate, average win and average loss from the same sample. There is no need to calculate the payoff ratio first. The tool derives it from the two averages.
Find the break-even threshold
Break-even shows the win rate needed for a zero average with unchanged average wins, losses and flat-trade share. In the example it is 33.33%. Without both a winning and a losing observation, the missing average cannot be estimated.
Choose cash or R multiples
Use cash amounts from your history, or normalise each trade by its own initial risk before adding results in R. A positive expectancy describes this sample. It does not guarantee future returns or measure drawdown.